risk evolution

This book is a cohesive guide to the available methods that can be used in population viability analysis. It is therefore extremely valuable to both the practitioner of conservation biology and the theoretical population biologist.

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Hephaestus Books represents a new publishing paradigm, allowing disparate content sources to be curated into cohesive, relevant, and informative books. To date, this content has been curated from Wikipedia articles and images under Creative Commons licensing, although as Hephaestus Books continues to increase in scope and dimension, more licensed and public domain content is being added. We believe books such as this represent a new and exciting lexicon in the sharing of human knowledge. This particular book is a collaboration focused on Evolutionary game theory.

More info: Evolutionary game theory (EGT) is the application of game theory to interaction dependent strategy evolution in populations. EGT is useful in a biological context by defining a framework of strategies in which adaptive features can be modeled. It originated in 1973 with John Maynard Smith and George R. Price’s formalization of evolutionarily stable strategies as an application of the mathematical theory of games to biological contexts, arising from the realization that frequency dependent fitness introduces a strategic aspect to evolution. EGT differs from classical game theory by focusing on the dynamics of strategy change more than the properties of strategy equilibria. Despite its name, evolutionary game theory has become of increasing interest to economists, sociologists, anthropologists, and philosophers.

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The research presented in this book demonstrates that in the management of risks arising from the development of complex socio-technical systems there are four contingent organisational states: high reliability; normal accidents; low reliability; and Murphy’s law. This research has shown that negentropy and redundancy are the forces that seek to achieve effective organisational behaviour and lead to a more steady predictable high reliability state of algorithmic organisational stability. However, such stability is contingent upon limiting, as far as possible, environmental disturbances. If systemic overload and instability increase significantly during decision toward implementation, high reliability may not eventuate and a crisis may unfold. Redundancy and anticipation are important in order to achieve effective and/or efficient operations with rational decision-making and negative feedback control loops. However, resilience may be more important when decision- making is non-rational, lead times are less than lag times and where economy or equity and positive feedback loops provide a more appropriate fit with the environment.

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Having started in the end of 2007, the recent financial crisis forced many banks into bankruptcy and triggered multiple bail-outs as well as the set up of guarantee funds and liquidity injections. One was under the impression of watching ‘Domino Day’ with the two differences being that banks were the falling stars of the show and that the plan according to which the banks were supposed to go down was not known even to the people being part of the game. I shed some light on this plan and examine the amount of contagion risk being present in the American and European banking systems. For this purpose, a sample of 15 US and 15 European banks is examined and several extreme value theory techniques are applied. The empirical evidence indicates that the American banking system is more prone to spillover risk than the European banking system. Despite particular cross-Atlantic differences, systemic risk has increased substantially on both continents over time. The evidence provided is calling for regulators’ and bank managers’ attention and action.

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The theory of the firm has recently undergone a dramatic transformation, drawing heavily on the pathbreaking work of Armen Alchian. This volume explores his contribution to the debate, including essays by Harold Demetz, Ben Klein, Jerry Jordan and Art Devany.

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Mathematical Methods of Environmental Risk Modeling provides a working introduction to both the general mathematical methods and specific models used for human health risk assessment. Rather than being purely an applied math book, this book focuses on methods and models that students and professionals are likely to encounter in practice. Examples are given from exposure assessment, pharmacokinetic modeling, and dose-response modeling.

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